{"id":1528,"date":"2026-03-06T16:09:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T16:09:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/?p=1528"},"modified":"2026-03-06T16:09:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T16:09:32","slug":"ecb-baskani-lagardedan-belirsizlik-cagi-uyarisi-geleneksel-modeller-yetersiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/?p=1528","title":{"rendered":"ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Lagarde\u2019dan &#8220;Belirsizlik \u00c7a\u011f\u0131&#8221; Uyar\u0131s\u0131: Geleneksel Modeller Yetersiz"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131&nbsp;<strong>Christine Lagarde<\/strong>, Johns Hopkins \u00dcniversitesi taraf\u0131ndan \u0130talya\u2019da d\u00fczenlenen K\u00fcresel Risk Konferans\u0131\u2019nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin &#8220;\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir risk&#8221; d\u00f6nemini geride b\u0131rakarak, geleneksel tahmin modellerinin i\u015flevini yitirdi\u011fi ger\u00e7ek bir&nbsp;<strong>&#8220;belirsizlik \u00e7a\u011f\u0131na&#8221;<\/strong>&nbsp;girdi\u011fini duyurdu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jeopolitik Par\u00e7alanma ve %7 Kay\u0131p Riski<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Lagarde, jeopolitik gerilimlerin g\u00f6lgesinde \u015fekillenen yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczenine dair \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir uyar\u0131da bulundu:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>K\u00fcresel Has\u0131la Kayb\u0131:<\/strong>\u00a0Jeopolitik par\u00e7alanman\u0131n k\u00fcresel has\u0131lay\u0131\u00a0<strong>%7 oran\u0131nda<\/strong>\u00a0azaltabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Piyasa \u00c7eli\u015fkisi:<\/strong>\u00a0Lagarde, piyasalar\u0131n teknolojik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 &#8220;d\u00fcnya par\u00e7alanm\u0131yormu\u015f gibi&#8221; fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n ise ticaret sistemindeki b\u00f6l\u00fcnmenin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi k\u0131s\u0131tlamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek bu iki g\u00fc\u00e7 aras\u0131ndaki kopuklu\u011fa vurgu yapt\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Para Politikas\u0131nda Yeni Strateji: Esneklik ve Veri<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ekonomik yans\u0131malar\u0131na de\u011finen Lagarde, ECB\u2019nin izleyece\u011fi yol haritas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu \u015fekilde tan\u0131mlad\u0131:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;Mevcut \u015foklar\u0131 izlemek ve etkilerini do\u011fru analiz edebilmek i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131nda esneklik korunacak. ECB bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te&nbsp;<strong>&#8216;toplant\u0131dan toplant\u0131ya&#8217;<\/strong>&nbsp;ve&nbsp;<strong>&#8216;veriye dayal\u0131&#8217;<\/strong>&nbsp;bir strateji izleyecek.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tarihi Tekerr\u00fcr Riski: 1920\u2019ler ve B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran Hat\u0131rlatmas\u0131<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Lagarde, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki teknolojik iyimserlik ile ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki krizler aras\u0131nda endi\u015fe verici bir paralellik kurdu:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>1920\u2019ler \u00d6rne\u011fi:<\/strong>\u00a0\u0130\u00e7ten yanmal\u0131 motor ve elektrik gibi teknolojilerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 iyimserli\u011fin, uluslararas\u0131 sistemdeki par\u00e7alanma nedeniyle\u00a0<strong>B\u00fcy\u00fck Buhran<\/strong>\u00a0ile sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatt\u0131.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>G\u00fcncel Risk:<\/strong>\u00a0G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde de benzer bir riskin kap\u0131da oldu\u011funu savunan Lagarde, &#8220;Bu iki g\u00fcc\u00fcn etkile\u015fimini do\u011fru y\u00f6netemezsek, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki hatalar\u0131 tekrarlama riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z,&#8221; ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kan Tespitler<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0Ge\u00e7mi\u015fin istikrarl\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re kalibre edilen makroekonomik modeller art\u0131k yeterli bir rehber de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0K\u00fcresel ekonomi k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fimden ge\u00e7iyor ve bu durum para politikas\u0131nda daha dinamik yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.internethaber.com\/ecb-baskani-lagarde-kuresel-ekonomi-belirsizlik-donemine-geciyor-2434127h.htm\">https:\/\/www.internethaber.com\/ecb-baskani-lagarde-kuresel-ekonomi-belirsizlik-donemine-geciyor-2434127h.htm<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131&nbsp;Christine Lagarde, Johns Hopkins \u00dcniversitesi taraf\u0131ndan \u0130talya\u2019da d\u00fczenlenen K\u00fcresel Risk Konferans\u0131\u2019nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin &#8220;\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir risk&#8221; d\u00f6nemini geride b\u0131rakarak, geleneksel tahmin modellerinin i\u015flevini yitirdi\u011fi ger\u00e7ek bir&nbsp;&#8220;belirsizlik \u00e7a\u011f\u0131na&#8221;&nbsp;girdi\u011fini duyurdu. Jeopolitik Par\u00e7alanma ve %7 Kay\u0131p Riski Lagarde, jeopolitik gerilimlerin g\u00f6lgesinde \u015fekillenen yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczenine dair \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir uyar\u0131da bulundu: Para Politikas\u0131nda Yeni [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1529,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya-haberleri"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/12-37wl_cover.jpg.webp","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1528","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1528"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1528\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1530,"href":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1528\/revisions\/1530"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1529"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/odakhaber.site\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}