\u0130klim bilimciler, modern tarihin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0olaylar\u0131ndan birinin bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi konusunda ciddi uyar\u0131larda bulunuyor. Okyanus s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki rekor art\u0131\u015flar, k\u00fcresel iklim dengesini de\u011fi\u015ftirecek devasa bir \u0131s\u0131nma dalgas\u0131n\u0131n kap\u0131da oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El Ni\u00f1o, ekvatoral Pasifik\u2019teki deniz y\u00fczeyi s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla olu\u015fan do\u011fal bir iklim olay\u0131d\u0131r. Bu durum, D\u00fcnya \u00fczerindeki \u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeniden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015f d\u00fczenlerini alt\u00fcst eder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WFLA-TV Ba\u015f Meteorolo\u011fu\u00a0Jeff Berardelli, s\u00fcrecin i\u015fleyi\u015fini \u015fu s\u00f6zlerle a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n“\u015eu anda Pasifik Okyanusu\u2019ndaki y\u00fczey alt\u0131 \u0131s\u0131, do\u011fuya do\u011fru hareket ederek y\u00fczeye y\u00fckseliyor. San\u0131r\u0131m modern tarihte daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6rmedi\u011fimiz hava olaylar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.”<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nKritik Veriler ve Tahminler<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
D\u00fcnya Meteoroloji \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (WMO) ve Zero Carbon Analytics verilerine g\u00f6re, El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun geli\u015fine dair beklentiler olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- Ortaya \u00c7\u0131kma Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131:<\/strong>\u00a0May\u0131s ile Temmuz aylar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimali\u00a0y\u00fczde 61.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- S\u00fcre:<\/strong>\u00a0Genellikle her iki ila yedi y\u0131lda bir tekrarlanan bu olay,\u00a09 ila 12 ay\u00a0s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Is\u0131 Anomalisi:<\/strong>\u00a0Y\u00fczey alt\u0131 s\u0131cak su hacmi ve \u015fiddeti, tarihsel kay\u0131tlardaki en y\u00fcksek seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrediyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nBilim \u0130nsanlar\u0131 Neden Endi\u015feli?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
California Su Kaynaklar\u0131 Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019nden iklim bilimci\u00a0Daniel Swain, tahmin modellerinin \u00e7ok kritik bir noktaya i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtiyor. Swain’e g\u00f6re, okyanusun derinliklerinden gelen devasa s\u0131cak su k\u00fctlesi hem hacim hem de \u015fiddet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha \u00f6nce benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir seviyede.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WMO \u0130klim Tahminleri B\u00f6l\u00fcm Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u00a0Wilfran Moufouma Okia\u00a0ise El Ni\u00f1o\u2019nun ba\u015flamas\u0131na dair g\u00fcvenin tam oldu\u011funu ve takip eden aylarda sistemin daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nD\u00fcnyay\u0131 Neler Bekliyor?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Hen\u00fcz pani\u011fe kap\u0131lmak i\u00e7in bir neden olmasa da uzmanlar haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini vurguluyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir El Ni\u00f1o; kurakl\u0131klar, \u015fiddetli f\u0131rt\u0131nalar ve rekor k\u0131ran k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir. \u0130klim modelleri, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan itibaren d\u00fcnya genelinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olaylar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fanma ihtimalinin olduk\u00e7a kuvvetli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu Haber \u0130\u00e7in Alternatif Ba\u015fl\u0131klar:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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- “Okyanusun Alt\u0131ndaki Dev Uyan\u0131yor: Rekor El Ni\u00f1o Kap\u0131da”<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- “May\u0131s-Temmuz Aras\u0131na Dikkat: \u0130klim Modelleri %61 Olas\u0131l\u0131k Veriyor”<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- “Modern Tarihte G\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f Hava Olaylar\u0131 Yolda: Is\u0131 Yeniden Da\u011f\u0131l\u0131yor”<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- “Pani\u011fe Gerek Yok Ama Haz\u0131r Olun: En G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc El Ni\u00f1o Geliyor”<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n